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National service is fickle, it does what it wants

Next time any of you drop by Singapore drop me a PM or say hi to me at the counter thanks

aka why does Gae Bolg never instant kill when it really matters.

For skills that apply a status: hitRate + successRateBuffs - debuffResistance
For instant death: hitRate * deathRate * (1 + successRateUp - successRateDown - instantDeathResistUp + instantDeathResistDown)
Taunt always works. There's a number but as far as I can tell it's not actually used.
For else: hitRate

HitRate is the chance listed in the skill or NP.
DeathRate is the servant's ...

Damage.

damage for this card = [servantAtk * npDamageMultiplier * (firstCardBonus + (cardDamageValue * (1 + cardMod))) * classAtkBonus * triangleModifier * attributeModifier * randomModifier * 0.23 * (1 + atkMod - defMod) * criticalModifier * extraCardModifier * (1 - specialDefMod) * {1 + powerMod + selfDamageMod + (critDamageMod * isCrit) + (npDamageMod * isNP)} * {1 + ((superEffectiveModifier - 1) * isSuperEffective)}] + dmgPlusAdd + selfDmgCutAdd + (servantAtk * busterChainMod) ...

Attacker / Defender	Man	Sky	Earth	Star	Beast
Man	1.0x	1.1x	0.9x	1.0x	1.0x
Sky	0.9x	1.0x	1.1x	1.0x	1.0x

...

Now for crit star drop rate.

Fairly simple, really.

dropChancePerHit = (baseStarRate + firstCardBonus + (cardStarValue * (1 + cardMod)) + serverRate + starDropMod - enemyStarDropMod + criticalModifier) * overkillModifier + overkillAdd

firstCardBonus = {20% if it's there, 0% otherwise. 0% for NPs}

cardStarValue =

	First	Second	Third
Arts	0%	0%	0%
Buster	10%	15%	20%
Quick	80%	130%	180%

...